According to IPCC AR5, the globally averaged temperature has been warming by 0.85℃ over the period 1880 to 2012, and it is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
IPCC AR5 showed that warming trends and increasing temperature extremes have been observed across most of the Asian region over the 20th century, and this warming trend will continue in the 21st century. Precipitation trends including extremes are characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends observed in different parts and seasons of Asia. Precipitation increases are very likely at higher latitudes by the mid-21st century.
As to small islands, current and future climate-related changes during the 21st century can be found in sea level rise, tropical and extratropical cyclones, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns.
Even if we introduce strong mitigation actions to reduce GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings, it is predicted that some extent of temperature increases are inevitable, and which would cause severe impacts on the nature and our society. In order to protect the nature as well as our society, we should take actions - adaptation - against the impacts by climate change.
Tables below show the selected key risks and potential for adaptation for ASIA and small islands from the present day to the long term. The risks appear in the various flied such as agriculture, water resource, natural disaster, and human health. With additional adaptation toward high, reductions of risk are expected. In order to protect the nature and our society, steady efforts on adaptation become extremely crucial.
Climate models are the primary tools available for investigating the response of the climate system to various forcings, for making climate predictions on a range of time scales from seasonal to decadal, and for making projections for the future climate of the coming century and beyond. This animation shows the change in air temperature (2 m from surface) at each point on the earth from around 1900 to the future using a projection by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) with and without Green House Gases (GHGs) mitigation measures.
Fig. Observed annual average temperature change from 1901-2012 (left pane); Projections of annual average temperature changes for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 (right pane) [From IPCC AR5]
Table Selected key risks and potential for adaptation for ASIA
Table Selected key risks and potential for adaptation for small islands