Mapping Ecological Vulnerability for Adaptation in Mongolia and China

Challenge

Pastoral landscapes in western Mongolia and northern China face drought, aridity, and land use pressures, with limited evidence to steer adaptation.

Solution

Assess ecological vulnerability using drought and aridity indices, vegetation metrics, and pasture-use layers; link maps to policy review and community-focused training.

Overview

Pastoral regions of western Mongolia and northern China experienced rising climate and land‑use pressures. Herders and local officials needed clear evidence on where vulnerability was highest, why it emerged, and which responses made sense at local and provincial levels.

This Asia‑Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) project led by Suvdantsetseg Balt (Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Mongolia) assessed ecological vulnerability at multiple spatial scales in western Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China, and linked the analysis to policy evaluation and training with local actors.

Study context and approach

The project team combined geospatial and social methods across three case areas. Satellite indicators included the drought index and aridity index, plus vegetation metrics such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is a satellite-based measure of vegetation greenness and health. In Mongolia, pastoral vulnerability was analyzed in Gobi-Altai and Khovd provinces, using drought index, aridity index, pasture-use, and vegetation cover-change layers. Correlation analysis then examined how mapped vulnerability related to socio-economic indicators of herding communities.

Policy evaluation reviewed local plans and regulations to see how well they aligned with on‑the‑ground risks. In China, the work focused on Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, producing maps of vegetation coverage and net primary productivity (NPP), which is the rate at which plants convert sunlight into biomass.

Levels of assessment

Regional scale

Regional mapping synthesized drought index, aridity index, pasture-use, and vegetation change to show vulnerability patterns and climate-exposure gradients across western Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China.

Provincial and municipal scale

At the provincial level in Mongolia, the analysis produced vulnerability profiles for Gobi‑Altai and Khovd, which supported discussion with local governors on adaptation priorities. Municipal‑level overlays then pointed to soums with higher exposure, guiding where to focus dialogue and field review.

Community scale

At the community scale, the project team held dissemination workshops and site visits on pastoral vulnerability and adaptation, and delivered training that combined GIS applications with research-based activities.

Policy and engagement

Consultations with local governments, herder groups, researchers, and NGOs examined whether existing policies and mandates supported or hindered adaptation. The project translated the technical findings into policy recommendations that emphasized site-appropriate actions, institutional commitment and funding support, and sustained monitoring.

Outcomes and results

• Workshops and exchange: There were 2 dissemination workshops and 2 site visits on pastoral vulnerability and adaptation, with 58 participants in total. Knowledge-exchange activities engaged 11 local government officers, 8 herding groups, 5 farmers, 13 young researchers, 1 NGO, and 12 professors.
• Research collaboration: The project mobilized 4 working teams, 6 research institutes, and 14 researchers, including 5 professors and 9 young scientists..
• Analytical outputs: Vulnerability maps for Gobi-Altai and Khovd in western Mongolia and vegetation coverage and NPP distribution for Tongliao in Inner Mongolia, China, plus correlation analysis linking mapped vulnerability with socio-economic indicators of herding communities.
• High-vulnerability footprint: About 41,787 km² of pastureland, 3.149 million livestock, and 32,000 people were living under high pastoral vulnerability in Khovd and Gobi-Altai.
• Pasture condition example: In Chandmani soum of Khovd, only 3.1% of total pastureland had not been degraded, with 66.3% low degraded, 13.4% medium degraded, and 17.1% heavily degraded, and since 1981, the non-degraded area decreased by 30.5% while degraded classes expanded.
• Social indicator: The gap in life expectancy between men and women widened from 5 years in 2000 to 9 years in 2018 in the study region, indicating greater impacts on male herders under harsh working and service conditions.
• Publications and dissemination: Several peer-reviewed publications (see Related information), workshop proceedings (First Discussion Workshop on Ecological Vulnerability Assessment, Proceedings of the Workshop on Social-Ecological Systems Governance for Sustainability), and conference papers were produced.

Project details

Acknowledgements

This project was supported by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) under its Collaborative Regional Research Programme (CRRP). Acknowledgements also go to the Mongolian Academy of Sciences and collaborating institutions in China, Japan, and Australia.

Related information

• Project Permalink
• Project Final Report
• Balt, S., Kherlenbayar, B., Altanbagana, M., & Nominbolor, Kh. (2020). Assessment of pastoral vulnerability on socio-economy of local communities using geospatial analysis. Modern Environmental Science and Engineering, 6(6). doi:10.15341/mese(2333-2581)/06.06.2020/008
• Balt, S., Kherlenbayar, B., Nominbolor, K., Altanbagana, M., Yan, W., Okuro, T., . . . Zhao, X. (2020). Assessment of pastoral vulnerability and its impacts on socio-economy of herding community and formulation of adaptation options. APN Science Bulletin, 10(1). doi:10.30852/sb.2020.1107
• Wang, S., Zhao, X., Suvdantsetseg, B., & Lian, J. (2020). Isolation of Efficient Cellulose Decomposer in Sandy Cropland and Its Application in Straw Turnover in Agro-Pasture Ecotone of Northern China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 8. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.528732
• APN Facebook
• APN LinkedIn
• APN X