Asia - Japan 
Challenge
Rising ocean temperatures, shifting fish stocks, and a shrinking workforce threaten the sustainability of Japan’s fisheries industry.
Solution
Japan plans to improve fish stock assessments, develop heat-tolerant aquaculture breeds, and advance monitoring systems to maintain sustainable fishery production.
Overview
Fisheries and coastal ecosystems underpin global food security and livelihoods. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that fisheries supply at least 20% of animal protein for three billion people, with 400 million relying on fish for food security (FAO, 2016). A further 850 million people live within 100 km of tropical coastal ecosystems, drawing on fishing, aquaculture, and tourism for food, coastal protection, culture, and income.
Climate change threatens this foundation: rising ocean temperatures are shifting fish stocks, disrupting marine ecosystems, and forcing fishing communities to adapt. Japan is a major part of this picture as, despite a declining catch, it ranked eighth globally with 3.1 million metric tons in 2021 (Statista). Fish consumption has fallen to nearly half its peak as meat consumption has risen, though efforts to encourage fish-eating habits continue – including through school lunches (Fisheries Agency). The sector faces additional pressure from industrialization and the outflow of young workers.
Japan’s fisheries strategy
Japan’s approach to the fisheries sector is guided by a commitment to the sustainable use of marine living resources in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has outlined a national position that stresses preventing overfishing and marine resource loss, developing international conservation systems, promoting fair trade rules, and combating illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing.
Japan also prioritizes a safe and sustainable supply of marine products for consumers, supporting the broader development of the fisheries industry, and plays an active role in international cooperation through regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs). As a fishing nation with advanced technology, Japan takes a leading role in these international bodies. Sustainable supply explicitly includes adapting to climate change.
Climate change impacts
Rising ocean temperatures are altering the distribution ranges of marine species, including chub mackerel, yellowtail, and Japanese flying squid, affecting their spawning and fishing seasons. As water temperatures rise, the variety and quantity of fish change, requiring resilient fishing practices and adaptations in fishing methods and gear.
Projected impacts suggest a decrease in global catch, with some species potentially moving into international waters or experiencing reduced distribution and size. The fishing and processing sectors both face disruption from these shifts.
Japan’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan
Japan’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan, revised in 2021, identifies fisheries alongside agriculture and forestry as sectors requiring dedicated adaptation measures (Ministry of the Environment).
The plan addresses two areas in particular.
The first centers on understanding how marine environmental changes affect fishery resources and improving the accuracy of stock assessments through better research and data integration – including refining fishing ground predictions and developing tracking systems for migratory species such as tuna and bonito.
The second focuses on developing aquaculture breeds tolerant to higher water temperatures, advancing technology for real-time monitoring of harmful algal blooms across wider areas, and adapting fish release methods to support survival in changing marine conditions.
Outlook
The marine environment cannot be controlled, so adaptation is the primary path forward. Japan’s integrated approach – combining improved ocean condition forecasting, selective breeding for heat tolerance, and international cooperation – aims to maintain sustainable fishery production levels despite evolving climate pressures.
Improving the accuracy of ocean condition forecasts and stock assessments through better research and data integration is central for this effort. As ocean conditions continue to change, the accuracy of stock assessments, pace of technological development, and strength of international cooperation will be decisive factors in the sector’s long-term resilience.
Acknowledgements
This report is based on publicly available information from the websites listed in the references section. Acknowledgement is given to the organizations and researchers that made this knowledge accessible. Reported by Kei Kurushima (IGES) and Adam Goulston (MacroLingo).
Related Links / References
- FAO (2016). “Brief on fisheries, aquaculture and climate change in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5)”.
https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/758e3a32-bc3d-42c0-badb-49ad72fe330c/content - Fisheries Agency (Suisancho). Status of seafood consumption.
https://www.jfa.maff.go.jp/j/kikaku/wpaper/r01_h/trend/1/t1_4_2.html (in Japanese) - Ministry of the Environment, Japan. Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
https://www.env.go.jp/content/000081210.pdf - Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. Fisheries.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/economy/fishery/page22e_000918.html - Statista. Top 10 fishing nations worldwide in 2021 (in million metric tons).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/240225/leading-fishing-nations-worldwide-2008/
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